Skills-based hiring practices—those that prioritize skills necessary to succeed in a role over formal educational credentials—show potential for securing higher positions for lower-wage workers and helping employers get the workers they need. The Demographics of Inflation Opinion Surveys. This implies an ever smaller fraction of the working age population in total population, leading to changes in consumption and saving behaviours and having an important impact on the macroeconomy. Bobeica et al. 10.15.01 Meet the Authors. View More
PDF (136KB) We exploit cross-country variation in a long panel to identify age structure effects in inflation, controlling for standard monetary factors. View More
And it could explain how long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored in spite of low inflation at present.We find a link between a population's age structure and inflation. Michael Bryan Contributing Author Michael F. Bryan is a contributing author and former employee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Global health conditions and travel restrictions necessitate that this conference will take place virtually. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This relationship accounts for the bulk of trend inflation, for instance, about 7 percentage points of US disinflation since the 1980s. Conversely, a larger share of working age people is associated with lower inflation. If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it Our data go back to 1870 and cover 22 countries. Submit your business survey returns online. Submit your price survey returns online.
Demographics have a large and reasonably predictable effect on the economy and in particular inflation and interest rates. For instance, in the United States a high share of dependants in the population raised yearly inflation by around 7 percentage points between the 1950s and 1970s. E.g., in 1974 there was a spike in the price of oil causing a period of high inflation around the world. Our findings support the view that demographic trends are among the forces that shape the economic environment in which monetary policy operates. The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. The finding is also economically significant. Guhan Venkatu leads the department’s regional analysis and outreach group. For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: