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(You can read more in these But not everyone agrees on that 90% threshold; Another important point is that the 90% threshold is estimated from cross-country data on national or federal debt.
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But for everyone else, let’s move straight to what the data shows.Table 1 below reports the ratio of debt to Gross State Product (GSP) in percentage terms for Australian states and territories over the last 10 years.As a reference, the bottom of the table also reports the ratio of debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in selected countries of the world. 0000002147 00000 n
In fact, debt is not always bad and the objective of fiscal policy cannot simply be the minimisation of debt levels.That’s not a sentiment you’re likely to hear either Queensland Premier Campbell Newman or Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk express between now and Saturday’s polling day. B\LIZ�&��[1 L��(pǕK�"m�L��ً��h�Y��h&�-i;G_��A���U����p�{T�t�;��9� 0:�a������+U�̫��s��Aᥞ������6�Ѧr�J�=Kg�mIS�l ��%��/ ����!��`K/|[qG�����)p\+��fU���6���Q%�[�8fR��sfU��\�g�j@�'��r�%J��������c����w�9;,{�n3>����8��nRH�4����$ Bˉ% �ۢI"�e�$.i����(+6��L.o�&�LID�
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The fact that in Queensland debt is higher than, say, New South Wales is not, in itself, enough to conclude that Queensland has a debt problem.The more relevant question for us to consider is then whether the debt level is sustainable or not. And how does Queensland’s debt compare, both within Australia and up against other countries?This is an article for anyone wanting to know the answers to those questions and more – including the many readers who requested an explanation on the state’s debt after my recent article on For those interested in the technicalities of where I got my data from, and why I chose to look at the ratio of debt to Gross State Product, that’s all explained in notes at the end of this article. Figure 5: States' general government net debt as a percentage of operating revenue, 2016 Sources: State financial reports for 2015-16; ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), Government Finance Statistics, Australia, 2014-15, Cat. 0000082683 00000 n
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5512.0 (Canberra: ABS, 2016). That data refers to general government debt only, and it’s sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook.What’s clear from that table is that the debt-to-GSP ratio in Queensland has increased considerably since 2006-07, and that most of this increase occurred under Anna Bligh’s Labor governments.And in comparison to other states, Queensland now has the highest debt-to-GSP ratio.However, this ratio remains relatively low in comparison to The ratio is also significantly lower than 90%, which some previous studies have identified as the level above which long-term growth is reduced. 0000034461 00000 n
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It is indeed this higher growth rate that in the simulation moderates the increase in the debt-to-GSP ratio.In fact, the chart shows that in terms of stabilising the debt-to-GSP ratio it is better to have a limited primary deficit and grow fast than to have zero primary deficit and grow slowly.This does not mean that the Queensland government (or any other government) should permanently run a deficit. 154 0 obj
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